Solana ETF approval expectations cool down

The cryptocurrency market was originally highly optimistic about the launch of the Solana ETF, but according to the latest data from the decentralized prediction platform Polymarket, the likelihood of the Solana ETF being approved by the SEC before July 31, 2025, has fallen to 56%. This represents a significant decline in market confidence of nearly 20 percentage points in just a few days, down from a previous high of 76% to the current relatively conservative level. This change has sparked heated discussions within the investment community and has led to a reevaluation of whether U.S. regulatory agencies remain conservative and cautious in dealing with emerging crypto financial products.

Multiple asset management companies are still waiting for a response from the SEC.

Several financial giants, including Fidelity, 21Shares, Franklin Templeton, Bitwise, and Canary Capital, have successively submitted S-1 application documents for the Solana ETF to the SEC. However, as of now, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission has not formally responded to any of the applications, and this delay is one of the reasons for the decline in market confidence.

Among them, the application submitted by Canary Capital at the beginning of 2025 was confirmed for acceptance, and Grayscale subsequently followed up with an application to add more momentum to the Solana ETF. However, acceptance does not equate to approval, which has led some investors to adopt a cautious wait-and-see attitude.

SOL price continues to fluctuate

Despite the optimistic atmosphere brought by the anticipated approval of the Solana ETF, the price of SOL has not shown a significant rebound. As of the time of writing, the current trading price of SOL is around 146 dollars, indicating that even with positive news, the market remains cautious and is waiting for a real regulatory breakthrough before taking further action.

Predictive market data

Although the data provided by platforms like Polymarket can serve as indicators of market sentiment, they cannot guarantee any specific outcomes. As of the deadline, the probability of SEC approval before July 31, 2025, is still showing a 56% chance, indicating that some investors remain hopeful, but it also highlights that uncertainty remains high.

(Source: Polymarket)

Nate Geraci, the president of ETF Store, stated at the end of last year that Solana is one of the public chain assets with the most potential to qualify for an ETF after Bitcoin and Ethereum. The SEC’s review standards have always been strict, and after the cryptocurrency market has undergone several fraud and money laundering controversies, any new product must go through a more cautious process to gain approval.

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Summary

The decline in the expected approval rate for the Solana ETF may just be a short-term emotional fluctuation under regulatory uncertainty. Although the market’s expectations for SEC approval before the third quarter of this year have cooled, this does not mean that Solana cannot become a part of mainstream asset allocation. If it can successfully break through regulatory barriers, Solana may become the third crypto asset to enter the traditional financial stage after BTC and ETH. Investors should continue to pay attention to subsequent developments and signals from the SEC, carefully assess risks and potential opportunities, as the outcome of this ETF battle is still undecided.