Recently, the market has been relatively dull and there has been relatively little news, but we can also find some highlights from it.
Liquidity is scarce, and the market caps of stablecoins continue to decline. According to DefiLlama data, the current total market cap of stablecoin is $123.448 billion, a decrease of 0.82% (or $1.025 billion) in 7 days, a decrease of 10% from $137.77 billion on January 1 of this year, and the lowest level since July 30, 2021.
According to market cap rankings, the top three stablecoins currently are USDT ($82.9 billion), USDC ($25.6 billion), and BUSD ($3.975 billion).
On the other hand, blue whales are starting to hoard a large amount of coins. According to Bitinfocharts data, addresses starting with bc1ql4 have accumulated 118,300.20 BTCs in the past three months, with a value of approximately $3.1 billion, ranking third in terms of holdings.
The address received its first Bitcoin as early as May 9, and the last (6,600) BTCs received was on June 29. There was no record of any transfers except for a small transfer on May 10. Previously, on June 15, it was monitored that the address held 15,200 BTCs, ranking fourth in terms of holdings.
In addition, the social concept and airdrop expectations of friend.tech have kept its market popularity high. According to Dune data, the protocol trading volume of the decentralized social platform friend.tech has exceeded 30,000 ETHs, currently reaching 30,425.5 ETHs, an increase of nearly 50% in 15 hours, and the protocol revenue has reached 1383 ETHs, an increase of 42% in 15 hours.
In the past 24 hours, the friend.tech protocol generated a total of $1.68 million in protocol fees, surpassing the Lido protocol ($1.61 million), Uniswap ($888,000), and Bitcoin network ($392,000) in the same period, second only to the Ethereum network ($3.45 million).
This week continues to await a clear direction. The bullish resistance level to watch is $26,510 USD. There could be a minor short-term rebound. For a bearish strategy, if the price falls below the previous low at $25,150 USD, consider shorting with a target of $24,220 USD.
Pay attention to the resistance at $1,694 USD for a potential breakout. If the breakout fails, a retest of the support at $1,631 USD might be necessary. The key support line represents the critical defense level; a breach might signify the onset of a medium-term bearish trend.
Following the official announcement of listing on a top South Korean exchange, there was a substantial uptrend. In the short term, it’s important to maintain stability above $5.097 USD. A solid retest at this level offers an excellent accumulation opportunity. Sequential upside targets include $5.307 USD, $5.878 USD, $6.745 USD, and the ultimate target of $8.185 USD.
Presently, there is not much news in the market, and Wall Street analysts are still waiting for the sudden outbreak of volatility. The speech of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell at the Jackson Hole Central Bank annual meeting may be the trigger, so we must pay attention to risks at important event nodes. If not, a single word from the big shots can cause the market to rise and fall sharply.
The probability of interest rate cuts next year, as reflected in the current market, continues to decline, while the bet on rate hikes this year has slightly increased. The swap contracts corresponding to the Federal Reserve’s meeting period show that the rate hike by November’s policy meeting was about 13 basis points, higher than the 11 basis points at the close of last Friday.
The expectation of interest rate cuts next year continues to decline, and market prices reflect a cumulative rate cut of approximately 103 basis points by the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting in December next year, compared to 109 basis points last Friday.
An article released by Nick Timiraos, the New Federal Reserve News Agency, discusses the possibility of a rise in neutral interest rates in the United States, which has attracted much attention. Some speculate this may be the preface to the Fed’s message at the Jackson Hole meeting.
However, Timiraos tweeted later on Monday that Powell is unlikely to believe that neutral interest rates have risen.